Sunday, May 25, 2008
Memorial Day Weekend Interlude: "Craft" Beer; Governor Jindal; David Miliband; Communication Hijinks
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Thomas Friedman Seems to Agree With Hasslington
Thomas L. Friedman, columnist for the New York Times and author of "The World Is Flat" (a book not about physical geography but about the challenges the United States will face in an increasingly competitive twenty-first century, among other things), seems to agree with me and a growing chorus of others that Fareed Zakaria's new book, "The Post-American World," is a clear-eyed analysis of the present geo-cultural and geo-political landscape, as well as America's role in the rapidly-shifting, dynamic world of the twenty-first century.
I wrote a post on Mr. Zakaria's book a few weeks ago, at which point I acknowledged that I had read only portions of it. I have since completed the book, and what I've read since posting my initial thoughts on it (in my "Newsflash..." post, below) has only reinforced my opinion that it needs to be read by anyone who wishes to help, in whatever way they can, to better position the United States to deal with the various challenges that it will face (and, unbeknownst to many, is facing at present) in increasing levels of intensity in the coming years.
On Wednesday (May 21, 2008), Mr. Friedman also referenced Mr. Zakaria's book in his column titled "Imbalances of Power." In this post I will provide some snippets from Mr. Friedman's column, because it dovetails with my own ideas, and as a prelude to these snippets I will say only that Mr. Zakaria's book, despite the title, is ultimately a celebration of what it means to be American, and a roadmap to a successful American integration to the world we are now entering. If our leaders read carefully what Mr. Zakaria, an American citizen who was born in India, has to say, the United States may indeed continue to lead the world in relevant and necessary ways, though ways that are often different from those espoused at present. (Fierce partisans beware: Mr. Zakaria makes approving statements regarding both Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, amongst others....)
Here's a bit from Mr. Friedman's column. First, what he has to say about a growing problem at present:
"More and more, I am convinced that the big foreign policy failure that will be pinned on this [Bush] administration is not the failure to make Iraq work, as devastating as that has been. It will be one with much broader balance-of-power implications--the failure after 9/11 to put in place an effective energy policy....
"The failure of Mr. Bush to mobilize the most powerful innovation engine in the world--the U.S. economy--to produce a scalable alternative to oil has helped to fuel the rise of a collection of petro-authoritarian states--from Russia to Venezuela to Iran--that are reshaping global politics in their own image.
"If this huge transfer of wealth to the petro-authoritarians continues, power will follow...."
Now, how Mr. Friedman presents Mr. Zakaria's book:
"For too long, argues Zakaria, America has taken its many natural assets--its research universities, free markets, and diversity of human talent--and assumed that they will always compensate for our low savings rate or absence of a [comprehensive] health care system or any strategic plan to improve our competitiveness.
"'That was fine in a world when a lot of other countries were not performing,' argues Zakaria, but now the best of the rest are running fast, working hard, saving well, and thinking long term. 'They have adopted our lessons and are playing our game,' he says. If we don't fix our political system and start thinking strategically about how to improve our competitiveness, he adds, 'the U.S. risks having its unique and advantageous position in the world erode as other countries rise.'"
Friedman goes on to discuss another author's similar conclusions. (And as I've previously stated, Mr. Zakaria's book examines how the United States can overcome the above challenges.)
Now, Americans can act taciturn about the conclusions regarding the present scenario listed above (which, given the nature of the issues, would be an indication of cultural insularity and myopia), or we can accept the overwhelming evidence for them (ask Americans who work abroad, in Europe, the rising Asian countries, Brazil, etc., what they think about these issues, and you will most likely see what I mean). If we choose to accept, at least broadly, these conclusions, we can act in a pragmatic manner in order to better position ourselves to more smartly use our leadership status as the inevitable economic--and therefore political--rise of China, India, Russia, the European Union, Brazil, South Africa, etc., occurs.
Among other things, such a pragmatic mindset would better position us (both Americans and, in a broader sense, people from Western nations) to retain a high standard of living at home, and it would help to forge powerful partnerships that could counter-balance the rise of potentially troublesome regimes.
As a final note, I will provide the final three paragraphs of Mr. Zakaria's book. After laying out the framework necessary to deal with a complex world, and, among other things, writing approvingly of Senator Obama's thoughtful initial (though not his revised) response regarding how to deal with international terrorism (which did not use fear-mongering as an inducement to voter agreement, as most of the other presidential candidates have), Mr. Zakaria ends the book by praising both a conservative icon and a liberal giant, and hearkening back to 1982, when he (Mr. Zakaria) first came to the United States:
"In the fall of 1982, I arrived here as an eighteen-year-old student from India, eight thousand miles away. America was in rough shape. That December, unemployment hit 10.8 percent, higher than at any point since World War II. Interest rates hovered around 15 percent. Vietnam, Watergate, the energy crisis, and the Iranian hostage crisis had all battered American confidence. Images of the helicopters on the roof of the American Embassy in Saigon, of Nixon resigning, of long lines at gas stations, and of the hostages blindfolded were all fresh in people's minds. The Soviet Union was on a roll, expanding its influence far beyond its borders, from Afghanistan to Angola to Central America. That June, Israel invaded Lebanon, making a volatile situation in the Middle East even more tense.
"Yet America was a strikingly open and expansive country. Reagan embodied it. Despite record-low approval ratings at the time, he exuded optimism from the center of the storm. In the face of Moscow's rising power, he confidently spoke of a mortal crisis in the Soviet system and predicted that it would end up on 'the ash heap of history.' Across the political aisle stood Thomas P. (Tip) O'Neill, the hearty Irish-American Speaker of the House, who personified the generosity and tolerance of old-school liberalism. Everywhere I went, the atmosphere was warm and welcoming. It was a feeling I had never had before, a country wide open to the world, to the future, and to anyone who loved it. To a young visitor, it seemed to offer unlimited generosity and promise.
"For America to thrive in this new and challenging era, for it to succeed amid the rise of the rest, it need fulfill only one test. It should be a place that is as inviting and exciting to the young student who enters the country today as it was for this awkward eighteen-year-old a generation ago."
Far be it for me to attempt to add too much to Mr. Zakaria's closing statements. So let me simply add this: the whole world is watching the United States as it carries onward in its extraordinary process of selecting its new chief executive. The world is watching the candidates, yes, but in particular the world is watching the attitude of the American people as they respond to the messages of each candidate. I will not tell anyone who to vote for--be it for local offices, statewide offices, or national offices. (You know who my presidential vote would be for, anyway.) I would only humbly suggest that, in order to better deal with the complexities of this world, Americans first ought to select whichever leader we think embodies the spirit of the United States in such a manner that both we and people around the world know that America is up to the challenge of an altered and updated form of global leadership, and ready to engage in a way that is energized, realistic, optimistic, and inspiring.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Kentucky and Oregon Primaries, and Related Matters
THE KENTUCKY AND OREGON PRIMARY RESULTS: IT'S (BASICALLY) A SPLIT-DECISION, WHICH IS A DEFAULT WIN FOR SENATOR OBAMA
Depending on which cable news network you watched the returns from last night's Kentucky and Oregon primaries (if you watched the returns, that is), Senator Clinton scored either a thirty-five or thirty-six percentage point victory in the state of Kentucky (65%-30% or 66%-30%, with the remaining 4-5% of votes cast either for other candidates or some form of "uncommitted"). That being said, Senator Obama won decisively in the state of Oregon (as I write this, the Oregon percentages are 58% for Senator Obama and 42% for Senator Clinton, with votes still coming in and therefore yet to be counted).
The two states feature similar numbers of overall pledged delegates, so it would seem to be the case that in tonight's primaries Senator Clinton will pick up, at best (for her), a few more pledged delegates than Senator Obama. This means that the evening is really a default victory for the frontrunner, as it looks as though Senator Clinton would now have to win an incredible amount of the yet-to-be-determined pledged delegates (and outstanding super-delegates) to challenge Senator Obama's totals.
Senator Obama is no Gary Hart, so I don't anticipate a complete and utter collapse on his part. Therefore, the nomination will be his, because Senator Clinton knows that if she tries to overturn the results after the final primaries (not counting Florida and Michigan) on June 3, she will have to do so in the old-school "smoky back room" manner, in which the leaders of the party machine make deals in order to determine a "winner." That won't fly in 2008. In fact, the area outside of the Democratic National Convention in Denver would be awash in riots in late August if such a thing were seriously attempted and word got out about it (which it would, and quickly)...as would a number of other cities nationwide. Senator Clinton knows that her reputation, as well as that of her party, is on the line, and therefore she will not attempt such a maneuver.
Her only hope is that the delegations of both Florida and Michigan boycott the convention if Senator Obama is the nominee, which I find hard to imagine. But I suppose the possibility of such a bizarre scenario exists, if at this point only in an odd parallel universe, and only with the obvious goading of major Clinton supporters nationwide, which would work to tear the party apart in an election year in which it smells Republican blood in the water. The rest of the party leaders surely wouldn't stand for it, and neither would a huge swath of its voters.
So, how and when she bows out gracefully--and if and when she bows out, it will be done gracefully--will help to determine whether or not Senator Obama will be forced to choose her as his Vice Presidential running mate. I still think such a scenario, though electorally expedient for the Democrats, would quickly devolve into a personality and political power struggle. It's therefore the case that I hope Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi are ready to make a congressional deal with her, which would probably result in her becoming the next Senate Majority Leader. (I doubt she'd care to leave the national legislature in order to be governor of New York.)
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATING PROCESS AND THE RICHARDSONIAN FACTOR
Despite not receiving his endorsement, Senator Clinton is still channeling the political language of Governor Bill Richardson. In her victory speech in Kentucky, she once again stated firmly her commitment to what she called an "energy revolution," which she noted means that new sources of energy must be produced on a mass scale if we are to steady both our domestic and foreign ships, so to speak. I agree with her. So would Governor Richardson, who discussed a similar "energy revolution" for the entirety of his year-long campaign for the presidency. Only when he dropped out of the race last January did Senator Clinton begin to incorporate his term "energy revolution" into her speeches (never once crediting him as the originator of that term, at least insofar as this election cycle is concerned).
I've discussed it before, but as the campaign has gone on, both Senators Clinton and Obama have moved from their more initially cautious approaches regarding the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq to the position they both seem to be taking now, which is the one that Governor Richardson (once again) espoused during the entirety of his campaign: a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops beginning soon after Inauguration Day. Though I am a big fan of Governor Richardson and supported actively his candidacy, I actually think the initial, more cautious withdrawal plans espoused by Senators Clinton and Obama were more realistic and workable. (I am no fan whatsoever of President Bush's war in Iraq; but I am a realist about what the geo-political fallout of a rapid withdrawal would be....)
REGARDING THE GENERAL ELECTION: THEY BOTH COULD WIN; THEY BOTH COULD LOSE
The Clinton campaign has taken to highlighting certain potential electoral maps in order to indicate why their candidate would be a stronger contender than Senator Obama in November's general election. It seems slightly interesting to note, however, that Karl Rove was using the same potential electoral maps (and saying many of the same things regarding them as the Clinton folks) just a few days previous to the Clinton people waving them around....
If you want to judge for yourself who is more "electable," I suggest heading to USA Today's interactive electoral map (at http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm). Bearing in mind that Senator Obama is stronger at present than Senator Clinton in the upper-Midwest and places such as Oregon and Colorado, and given that Rassmussen Reports now has him tied with Senator McCain in Ohio, he seems to have a lot of potential paths to the presidency. Senator Clinton's potential paths seem more limited in number (particularly if she loses a state such as, say, Wisconsin or Oregon, which are now listed as default-Democrat but are far more supportive of Senator Obama vs. Senator McCain than of Senator Clinton vs. Senator McCain) but are no less achievable if she manages to carry Ohio, which the polls suggest she could very well do.
I tinkered around with the USA Today map a bit tonight and, assuming that he wins all of the default-Democratic states (not a given right now; he NEEDS to work to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania, about which I wrote in a previous post), Senator Obama could win the presidency by scoring victories in New Mexico (whose governor supports him enthusiastically), Colorado (where he is basically tied with Senator McCain), and Missouri...or in Iowa, Missouri, and New Hampshire...or in Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico...or, well, the list goes on and on and on some more. And that assumes that he loses in BOTH Ohio and Florida, which is not a given....
Senator Clinton's paths are a bit more straight-forward, but could prove as bumpy as Senator Obama's potential paths, particularly if she loses in a state like Wisconsin, Oregon, or even Minnesota....
The bottom line is that both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are "electable." Conversely, they both could lose, as well, though at this early stage, given the vote totals in the Democratic primaries in swing-states, one would have to think that the advantage is with them. I just hope that they don't start thinking like the Clinton advisor who suggested that "a refrigerator" could be the nominee and win it for the Democrats this time around. That type of thinking suggests overconfidence, which is never a good sign.
QUICK THOUGHTS:
* Pat Buchanan last evening referred to Democrats in Oregon as "spotted-owl leftists," which I take to mean far-left-of-center voters. Whether or not that is true, it is also true that Vice President Gore struggled to win the state in 2000 (he did, but not by much), and Senator Kerry couldn't take a win there for granted until election day of 2004, when they made up their minds to hand him a win, but not a stunning one by any means. The state has leaned to the left in recent presidential elections, but it's been a hard-fought victory for the Democratic nominee each time. Democrats in that state may be slightly to the left of "average" U.S. Democrats, but there are a lot of Republicans and all-important Independents there, too. And Senator Obama is far more popular than Senator Clinton in Oregon right now.... (Psst: watch for Senator McCain to make a real effort to win Oregon in November.)
* Terry McAuliffe must be the most annoying Democrat on the national political scene (which is really saying something). I cringe whenever I so much as see him. His whole persona eminates "embarrassment" in so many ways, some of which I find I don't even know how to articulate, that I don't know where to begin. (Oh, well...the Republicans certainly are not struggling to find embarrassing members of their own party to inflict on us all.)
* Was I hearing things, or did Senator Obama mention the D-Day Normandy landings in his speech in Iowa immediately following the Kentucky and Oregon primaries? Whether it was a figment of my imagination or not, it got me thinking that, unlike Senators Clinton and McCain, when Senator Obama speaks he delivers the American romanticism required of a presidential candidate in a mellifluous manner that, in its own, very unique way, strangely makes me think of the mellifluous manner in which Winston Churchill delivered British romanticism over the airwaves in order to bolster the sprit of his people (and deliver a message of defiance to the Nazis) during World War II. (I am not suggesting that their speech patterns are similar; they are not, but they do both flow in very compelling manners.)
How interesting--just a few days after the Republicans clumsily invoke Neville Chamberlain and appeasement in order to draw comparisons with Senator Obama, Senator Obama's rhetoric begins to reference, at least tangentially, Winston Churchill....
There are those who suggests that beautiful, vibrant words cannot be the end game of politics, and they're right, but so often such words provide great societal moments, which in turn start great societal endeavors. You don't get to the end of anything without a beginning, and it never hurts to be inspired before you start.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Slip Slidin' Through Politics and Coffee
SENATOR McCAIN'S TEAMMATES KEEP SLIP SLIDIN' AWAY
In another in a series of signs that the Republicans may be imploding this election year, Presumptive Republican Nominee Senator John McCain's national finance co-chairman, Thomas Loeffler, has been forced to resign after it was revealed that he lobbies for the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company. According to an article in Monday's (May 19, 2008) edition of USA Today, this company "...with Northrup Grumman, won a lucrative contract to provide air refueling tankers for the [U.S.] Air Force." The article goes on to state that, "...McCain helped scuttle an earlier contract that would have gone to a competitor, Boeing."
Given that one of Senator McCain's campaign strategies is to show that he is both a Washington "insider" in the sense that he is very experienced and therefore ready to step into the office of the Presidency and be immediately effective, yet also very much a Washington "outsider" in the sense that he is not a typical, bought-and-sold politician who is in the proverbial back pockets of lobbyists and corporations, this cannot be a positive development for the trajectory of his campaign.
Yet what many might find worse than Mr. Loeffler's situation is the fact that two other gentlemen previously affiliated with the McCain campaign, Doug Goodyear and Doug Davenport (can those possibly be real names?), resigned a week or so ago, due to the revelation that they have both lobbied for DCI Group, which sounds innocuous enough, unless you know that DCI Group was hired by the brutal ruling junta of Burma (Myanmar) in order to soften its international image. (This would be the same junta that refuses to initially allow relief supplies into their country at times of humanitarian crises...and when supplies are finally allowed in, they refuse to properly distribute them; many international organizations postulate that they stockpile the supplies for themselves while letting their people languish due to poverty and hunger.)
If he wants to win the general election in November, Senator McCain had better put an end to his campaign team's shenanigans immediately. The national Republican Party has taken the prehistoric route regarding science and technology issues of late; they seem to be completely out of touch regarding the geo-political trajectory of the world and America's role in it (many of them don't even seem to understand geo-politics); and, for the first time in a long time, they are well behind the Democrats as far as money raised for November's elections is concerned. Senator McCain had better start some behind-the-scenes ass-kicking if he and his party are to avoid looking disingenuous in the run-up to November's elections, and therefore avert disaster. And he'd better straighten-out his own voting record, as well.
This is particularly necessary for him because a big part of Senator McCain's appeal is what many see as his strong personal character. He'd better hope that it doesn't take a big hit sometime soon, because many of his party's stances on the issues of the day are surely not a strong suit for him or for Republican congressional candidates in 2008.
...AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING FOR THE G.O.P., OR RATHER AT THEM....
The Republicans need to defend nearly thirty open national congressional seats this coming autumn, whereas the number the Democrats have to defend (at least thus far) looks as though it will be in the lower single digits. (This does not count elections featuring incumbents, of course.) This wouldn't be a disaster for the G.O.P. if it weren't for the fact that several powerful Republicans have recently retired or will soon retire, which means that the money their political action committees raise will be cut drastically. This combined with the party's poor approval ratings nationwide (and the poor approval rating for President Bush, who also happens to be a member of that party) have resulted in a substandard fundraising season that is alarming Republican strategists.
Through this past March 31, Federal Election Commission records show that the Democrats have already raised over fifty million dollars more than their Republican counterparts for use in national congressional campaigns. (This has been reported on various national news stations, as well as in various reputable printed news outlets.) Rumors suggest that this trend has not reversed itself so far this spring. When one adds to this the fact that Senator Obama, who will most likely be the Democratic Nominee for president this election cycle, has raised far, far more money than has Senator McCain for his campaign, this may spell disaster for the Republicans in the autumn.
But please mark my words carefully: it MAY spell disaster. The Democrats have to be very, very careful how they market their candidates this time around, or else the G.O.P. is likely to chip away at their advantages, at first political...and then financial. Given that the Democrats seem to be the only party that presently understands--at least to a certain extent--the world and America's place in it, it is essential that they not lose their advantages prior to the November elections.
I AM TOO OLD FOR CARIBOU COFFEE
I received more than my fair share of prolonged glances today at a local Caribou Coffee shop, and it was due, I'm sure, to my lack of a "gimmick"....
I'm still getting used to America again (and enjoying the process), and its coffee shop culture is no exception. When I was in England, coffee shops (and, yes, they have plenty of Starbucks outlets, for example) were places where one went to bump constantly into other people trying to squeeze along with you through too-small doors into too-small aisles featuring too-long lines of irritated shoppers making their way in an arduously slow manner toward the overworked--and therefore frazzled--clerks. When one finally acquires his or her drink, he or she then scrambles to what is inevitably the last open seat in the whole establishment (generally right next to the bathrooms, the emergency door, and/or the steps to what is supposed to be the upper level but is really more of a World War II-era attic).
At this point the relieved individual tries to stretch his or her legs out, only to have his or her coffee spill all over everything (including the Times article they meant to read, titled something like "Overcrowded Britain") as three or four other folks stumble over the aforementioned outstretched legs and spill their own coffees in various directions in a projectile-like manner, forcing most of those within a twenty-foot radius to spill their coffees as they dive for cover. Oddly, everyone apologizes, but to no one in particular and in a rather perfunctory manner. After a few more such chain reactions, one gives up and leaves the coffee shop in order to inevitably find oneself at the local pub, where one must crash into an only slightly-different crowd of people, all attempting to calm their nerves with alcohol after giving up the attempt to negotiate the mass wall of humanity on the streets.
In the United States, which features bigger...well, everything...the pinball machine atmosphere of coffee shops (and pubs, and a lot of other things) in England is replaced by a more laid-back atmosphere in which one can generally stretch one's legs out. But, it seems, one must have a gimmick in order to do so without being stared at. Potential gimmicks come in various types, such as that possessed by the young lady I sat next to today who seemed the most "professionally attired" in the whole place, but who upon closer examination was stretching out her bare feet upon a pillow. Across from us sat two college-aged hippie-types (no bad thing), probably a romantic couple, sporting hole-slashed shirts, dredlocks, and rather contented, slightly dazed looks, yet who nonetheless were typing quickly upon laptop computers so decked-out with the latest-everything that one would think the Pentagon uses the same models for retasking spy satellites.
Then there was the career woman in her late-twenties who was wearing what appeared to be a thousand-dollar suit and about six beepers on her belt; the too-chipper-to-be-on-a-natural-high clerk, who seemed to have just recently finished his third cappuccino of the hour and was operating at what one might call an "ethereal" level, and who was a bit overly concerned that the air conditioning might be too cold for me...even though (a.) it wasn't, and (b.) I had barely strode through the door and certainly hadn't had time to register the temperature when the question was put to me; and so forth.
I am in my thirties, which puts me at an age that one might call "young-ish" but struggle to more accurately pinpoint. It probably did not help those around me in the coffee shop better pinpoint my age that I happened to be wearing a t-shirt that read "Paul Simon: Still Crazy After All These Years." It's the same one I wore often in England. The English coffee crowd seemed too preoccupied with not smashing into one another to care much about my shirt, or me in general, which is fine with me. American coffee shop attendees (and not just at Caribou Coffee) often look at my shirt, and me, rather quizically, as if trying to decide whether I'm a bit too old to understand the gimmick-culture of the coffee shop, or whether my lack of a gimmick is itself a clever gimmick. I don't know how to respond to such looks, so I often hide my somewhat embarrassed self-consciousness at such scrutiny behind a fake-but-ostensibly-close study of whatever I'm reading.
That being said, since returning to America, I have yet to spill a single cup of coffee, which is nice.
SOON-TO-BE-MOCKED KENTUCKY AND OREGON PRIMARY PREDICTIONS
KENTUCKY: I actually overheard two Kentucky businessmen talking at a local coffee shop (not Caribou) just last week. Their accents were thick, but their intelligence levels could not necessarily be described as such (that's a compliment, by the way). That being said, one statement seemed appropriate regarding this primary election--one of them, after previously discussing business patterns in some depth, switched gears and said, in a serous voice, of someone else, "He doesn't seem to be a country boy to me...." Of Senators Clinton and Obama, she has proven better at projecting both a working-class persona and an oddly-effective "rural" persona. So, my prediction is CLINTON BY THIRTY PERCENTAGE POINTS.
OREGON: The states are different in several ways, but Democrats in Oregon are often a lot like Democrats in Minnesota. That being said, this is a primary and not a caucus, so Senator Obama will not win by over thirty percentage points, as he did in Minnesota. My prediction: OBAMA BY FOURTEEN PERCENTAGE POINTS.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Various Notions, Volume 6: Grow Up, Mike; Sons of Presidents; Batting Title Predictions
Friday, May 16, 2008
Senator Obama's "Aces-In-The-Hole"?: The Potential Edwards and Levin Factors
EX-SENATOR EDWARDS ENDORSES SENATOR OBAMA. WELL, SORT OF....
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Senator Clinton Wins the West Virginia Primary; Nutrition, Money, and Energy Concerns in the Food Crisis Era
THE "HILL"-S ARE ALIVE....
Regarding the West Virginia Democratic primary results, which were (as expected) skewed heavily toward Senator Clinton, I don't exactly know what to say. I suppose I could do what I normally do--find an angle and wax lyrically about it. But does this particular primary really mean anything substantive? If so, what? (I know a West Virginian. To that person I'd like to say that I'm sorry to seem as though I am downplaying this particular primary; the fact of the matter is that I really don't know what to say about it, because I really don't know what its importance in the grand scheme of this election cycle is, since we have long since anticipated the [West Virginia] outcome we've received...).
Yet I feel as though I should say any of a number of things, given the importance of West Virginia in the general election. It is, after all, a potential swing-state....
I suppose, however, that we may have to wait in order to see what happens next week in Kentucky and (especially) Oregon in order to gauge the importance of the West Virginia primary. For now, all we know is that the outcome hasn't cut deeply in any way, shape, or form into Senator Obama's existing delegate lead, and it also seems to have given Senator Clinton a day of good press.
IT'S A GLOBAL SUPERMARKET, WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT
Whoever is elected the next President of the United States will have to increasingly find ways to deal with what amounts to a present global food crunch. U.S. News and World Report's May 19, 2008 issue features a lengthy article on this global food crisis ("Fixing the Food Crisis"), which is widening and deepening by the month. In the United States and much of Europe, the "crisis" consists mostly of rather strikingly higher prices of late for food items produced overseas, as well as some items produced at home (in the U.S., domestically produced eggs and cheese seem to be particularly high in comparison to a year ago). In many poorer parts of the world, the crisis is far more dire, with food supplies and food prices squeezed by the rise of what might be called "affluent tastebuds" elsewhere.
The increased food prices in the Western world (and a few other already-developed nations) are due to a number of factors, the biggest of which is the fact that much of the developing world is doing just that--developing. China and India are leading the charge toward rapid mass industrialization, and in doing so their economies are growing by enormous leaps and bounds each and every month. It is therefore the case that they are increasingly demanding more and more of the world's resources, particularly, but not exclusively, oil. (I wrote about this in my May 9, 2008 post that centered on Fareed Zakaria's new book "The Post-American World," which can be found below...). And they now have the money to pay for the oil they demand.... Thus, in demanding a larger and larger percentage of oil resources, they are increasingly resembling Western countries such as the United States and much of Europe, etc.
Along with worldwide oil resources, people in many rapidly developing nations are eating in a different manner than they used to. This is to say that they are now, by and large, in a better position to eat enough food to move beyond "subsistence" levels (of course there are exceptions); their increasing wealth means that, at a general level, they can demand to eat more "filling" meals. It also means that they are demanding the right to eat more and more meat (again, this means that they are resembling many Western countries) as each year goes by. For instance, according to U.S. News and World Report, Brazil's yearly meat consumption per person has more than doubled since 1980 to its present level of 197 pounds per person per year; China, with its population far in excess of a billion people, has seen its yearly meat consumption quadruple to 109 pounds per person per year. The already-affluent U.S., by contrast, has seen its meat intake increase steadily (if not at such enormous percentages) to its present level of over 270 pounds per person per year.
Meanwhile, many poorer countries (many, though not all, located in Africa) still struggle to feed their populations in a way in which they at least achieve subsistence levels, and people in wealthier Western nations are feeling the money squeeze each time they purchase food, whether it be at a grocery store, a farmer's market, or a restaurant.
It is no wonder that one of the suggestions of the authors of the U.S. News... article is that we start shifting global paradigms regarding meat consumption, and one of the best ways to do that is to set a good example in the already-developed world. This will take the strain off meat production and it means that more (meatless) food can be available to all people, both domestically and globally. The article, for instance, suggests that it takes about seven pounds of corn to produce one pound of beef (the animal that will be slaughtered is fed, among other things, large amounts of corn), and nearly seven pounds of corn to produce one pound of pork. It also suggests that it takes nearly three pounds of corn to produce one pound of chicken. (Perhaps not surprisingly, some vegetarian groups claim that, when all forms of food are taken into account, it takes far more than seven pounds of food that humans could potentially eat to produce one pound of beef or pork.)
Now, one could argue that the particular type of corn used to feed livestock is not what most people would consider desirable and/or "tasty," but that is missing the point. At the risk of being labeled a "vegetarian" (which would be no bad thing, of course), the point is that a lot of valuable farmland is presently being used up in order to produce meat, but, if converted, a solid percentage of it could produce far, far more meat-less food, which could then be sold at cheaper prices, considering the amount that could be produced. This could help to take some (though certainly not all) of the strain off of both domestic and global food supplies when they are set against demand, and it could help to provide a counter-balance to some of the rising food price trends.
Since I (and the authors of the aforementioned article) am not advocating that we abandon eating meat altogether, but rather reduce the amount of meat that we eat, this also means that we folks in wealthier nations may have the opportunity to re-discover, at mass levels, other sources of protein--particularly plant-based protein, which has the added bonus of being economically inexpensive in comparison to meat-based protein--and therefore have more balanced diets. (Imagine how much more balanced our diets would be if, say, Americans and Europeans reduced our average yearly meat consumption by half.)
The article goes on to list several other ways that we can help at least slow down both the rapidly-rising price of food at home and alleviate hunger in areas hit hard by the growing affluence (and therefore growing food consumption) of much of the rapidly-developing world. Among the ways suggested are: improving how food aid schemes are structured and delivered to struggling portions of the globe; curbing our present (and ridiculous, as far as I'm concerned) mass development of ethanol as an alternative fuel resource and instead focusing on biofuels that do not remove potential sources of food from the market; rapidly developing renewable sources of energy; expanding funding for research focused on improving yields worldwide; and lifting tarrifs and taxes on imported foodstuffs to and from struggling nations worldwide.
(I would also suggest developing modern, up-to-date sources of atomic energy, much like France does. This would not be antiquated, Three-Mile-Island-esque atomic power, but far-safter, more modern atomic power, the likes of which the United States and, until quite recently, Great Britain have refused to consider to a serious extent. This would help alleviate the strain on some oil supplies, such as those used for home heating oil in a surprisingly large percentage of North American homes, which in turn would help to curb food price increases by freeing-up some more oil for the transportation of foodstuffs.)
If we get onboard insofar as this is concerned (and reduce our U.S.-average of throwing away 320 pounds of food per person per year, according to U.S. News...), we could and would do the following: rediscover our environmentally conscientious natures; save our families money on a monthly basis; reduce the global food shortage; and help our gas-money stretch further at the pump as alternative (and increasingly renewable) sources of powering our methods of transportation are developed on a mass scale.