The Indiana and North Carolina Verdict: It's Just About All Over, Except For the Posturing

Barring an incredible political collapse, the likes of which Senator Obama has thus far not shown a proclivity to produce on what would basically be the political equivalent of a moment's notice, the results from last night's North Carolina and Indiana primaries suggests that the race for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency of the United States is effectively over, with the result being that Barack Obama will be the individual who will take on who I still consider to be the formidable presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, this coming November. (What a fascinating fight to the finish that is likely to be, from a number of different standpoints....)

That being said, though Senator Clinton could very well drop out of the race sometime in the next few days, I doubt that she will, which means that Senator Obama will most likely have to wait for a while (as will we all) for Senator Clinton's concession speech. This is due to a number of factors, but the biggest one is that Senator Clinton has some necessary posturing left to do, which includes winning the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries, which would put her in a position to perhaps leave the race for the nomination on or just after May 20, the date on which she is likely to win the Kentucky contest and Senator Obama is likely to win the Oregon contest. (Yet I feel compelled to say that I'd still like to see her compete through June 3 in order to erase any "could-have-beens" that might be muttered to harmful effect, as far as Senator Obama is concerned, by her most fervent of supporters; if she competes everywhere, it will be difficult to argue how she "should be the nominee" if and when she ends up with fewer pledged deleates than does Senator Obama.)

Such a split-decision on May 20, coupled with a very-probable victory in West Virginia the previous week, would allow Senator Clinton to leave the race in a position of relative strength. This in turn would put her in a position to perhaps dislodge Senator Harry Reid out of his lofty Senate Majority Leader perch, with Senator Clinton stepping into that most powerful of Senatorial posts. She would then be able to rightly claim that, though she did not win the nomination as many (indeed, most) pundits and voters had previously expected her to do, she has nonetheless put herself in a position to influence legislative policy to an enormous degree, particularly after the Democrats (hopefully) pick up two or maybe three more Senate seats in November, creating their first real working majority in quite some time. (The present 51-49 Senate split is a bit of a misnomer, with Independent-Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman siding with the Republicans regarding the Iraq war and Democratic Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota recovering slowly from a horrific brain hemorrhage he suffered some time ago; and, remember, in the event of a voting "tie," the Vice President casts the deciding vote in the U.S. Senate....)

I bring this up because North Carolina voted heavily for Senator Obama last evening (he won by a whopping 230,000+ votes in that state, which translated into a victory margin over Senator Clinton of approximately 14%), and because Indiana, even with popular U.S. Senator Evan Bayh's strong support and a solid percentage of Clinton-friendly blue-collar voters, was not particularly beneficial to Senator Clinton's overall chances, either (she won the state, but only by about 20,000 votes, which translated into a victory margin over Senator Obama of approximately 2%). The remaining undecided superdelegates are now unlikely to be attracted in any direction but (perhaps slowly, but probably quite surely) that which points towards Senator Obama, given his hefty pledged delegate haul from yesterday evening, despite the fact that the past few weeks have been anything but smooth for his campaign (what with the Reverend Wright debacle, the re-emergence of his "bitter" comments on televison and radio, etc., etc.).

If what Senator Obama achieved in these two primaries is the "damage control" we've heard so much about in the wake of his disappointing Pennsylvania primary results, it's the kind of damage control any politician would love to have....

For her part, Senator Clinton surely knows that both the delegate math (which had already been against her) and the all-important psychology of voters nationwide (which she had seemed to tap into in a rather positive manner of late) are now decidedly on the side of Senator Obama. She therefore can see her chances to win the nomination slipping away, despite what she may say publicly, given that no real possible "upset" states are left on the calendar (tonight's results probably sealed the deal for an Obama victory in Oregon on May 20). So now the posturing begins, because in a way this electorally disasterous evening has put her in a new, powerful position in that she can begin to demand certain concessions from her party prior to stepping down.

She could, for instance, make a real play for the Vice Presidential slot; if she demands it persistently enough, the pressure could force Senator Obama's hand and he might have to give it to her. But the result of such a pairing, though very strong indeed from an electoral standpoint, would most likely prove quite disappointing from a governing standpoint, with power struggles and New Guard vs. Old Guard rivalries breaking out everywhere, hurting both the Democrats' chances for re-election to the White House in 2012 and (just as important) their potential continued national legislative dominance. Senator Clinton must understand this, which is one reason why I don't think that she will demand the post, the other reason being rather cynical--if Senator Obama loses the upcoming election and she is not on the ticket, she may be in a good position to run for the nomination again in 2012, particularly after time goes by and she is increasingly seen as having been the "better" choice in retrospect. (This becomes moot if Senator Obama wins the general election, of course.)

Senator Clinton would be particularly ready to re-run for the Presidency in 2012 if she were to be appointed to the high-profile position of Senate Majority Leader, which is one reason why I think this is what she most likely has her sights set on right now. (If she returned to the Senate at her current level of seniority, she may or may not have the leverage to beat another upstart in 2012 or 2016, given what second-place finishes have done to many fine politicians in the past....) Another is the fact that the leaders of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate have a great deal of sway regarding exactly when and how (as well as, in many cases, if) the President's legislative wishes are carried out. She may not be the President, but as Senate Majority Leader she could and would greatly affect national policy, both domestic and foreign in nature, particularly with a larger Democratic majority in the Senate....

And so it may behoove Senator Clinton to stay in the race for the Democratic nomination, which would translate into two more primary wins (in the aforementioned states of West Virginia and Kentucky) by May 20, and probably put enough pressure on her Senate colleagues to "convince" Senator Reid to "voluntarily" step down from his Senate Majority Leader post effective after the new Senate is in place in January of 2009. This would entail Senator Clinton making the announcement that she is leaving the presidential race and endorsing Senator Obama on May 21 or 22, or perhaps shortly after June 3, whenever the machinations are in place for her to be assured that she will assume more authority within the party effective early 2009.

Then it would be to her advantage to campaign strongly and positively for both Senator Obama and for Senate Democrats across the country, to provide a bridge of unity between her supporters and those of Senator Obama, and to come across as both graciously accepting defeat in the Democratic nomination process and determined to "carry on working in powerful manners to see that the values for which the Democratic party stands become reality" (or some wording thereof). It would be difficult to forget about the importance of Hillary Clinton in any case, but it would be very, very difficult for people to fail to respect her if she carried on in this manner.

Oh, and let's remember what many reporters are now (rightfully, for once) saying--she may help Senator Obama by staying in the race until at least May 20, because if she dropped-out now and he subsequently lost to her in West Virginia or Kentucky or both despite her having dropped out, the Republican attack machine would jump all over that fact as a sign of Senator Obama's perceived "electoral weakness."

Please, Senator Clinton, don't take this fight all the way to the Democratic Convention in Denver, but don't drop out of the race just yet, either, for there is some necessary posturing to do.