Senator Obama's "Aces-In-The-Hole"?: The Potential Edwards and Levin Factors

EX-SENATOR EDWARDS ENDORSES SENATOR OBAMA.  WELL, SORT OF....

OR

UTILIZE HIM ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, YES, BUT DON'T MAKE HIM THE RUNNING MATE

In a move that stays true to his politically put-together nature, ex-Senator John Edwards of North Carolina endorsed Senator Barack Obama's candidacy for the Presidency of the United States on Wednesday.  This typically occurred long after such an endorsement would have been considered politically brave, given that the "math" (as nearly everyone seems intent on calling it these days) suggests that Senator Obama will win the most pledged delegates for the nomination once the preliminary rounds of caucus and primary voting are done after June 3.  Hence, instead of putting his political muscle (the extent of which is still an open question to many, including myself) behind one of the two frontrunners prior to, say, the Pennsylvania primary, Senator Edwards today essentially endorsed the person who will win his party's nomination in any case.

I have no real problem with this because both of the Democratic frontrunners (Senators Clinton and Obama) are strong candidates (though I prefer Senator Obama, for reasons I've discussed often on this blog-site).  And, at any rate, it is what we've come to expect from Senator Edwards:  he talks often about the necessity to put political conviction in front of political calculation, but he is one of the most politically calculated individuals we've seen run for the presidency in recent years (which is really saying something...).  Remember, he won a U.S. Senate seat for a term, and then "gave it up" when it looked as though he would be beaten for re-election, "choosing" to run for President in the 2004 election cycle instead.  I still say that this latter decision was itself a politically calculated move in that he knew he'd probably lose the nomination race in 2004, but it would set him up to run early and often for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 election cycle.

To his credit, he managed to win enough support in 2004 to become the Democratic nominee's (Senator John Kerry) running mate in that cycle.

And so yesterday, well into May of 2008, John Edwards publicly endorsed Senator Obama's candidacy in Grand Rapids, Michigan.  In doing so, he all but admitted to his penchant for the political equivalent of "playing it safe" when he said, "The Democratic voters in America have made their choice, and so have I."  Unlike, say, Senator Chris Dodd or Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Edwards waited until the numbers suggested that Senator Obama's pledged delegate lead had become all-but-insurmountable before throwing his support behind the leader.  The people chose first, and he followed later.

Yet it is certainly Mr. Edwards's right to hold out until the scales have very nearly tipped fully to one candidate or the other, and his endorsement is important in at least one sense:  I have always thought that the moment the the extremely politically calculated Senator Edwards endorsed anyone would be the moment that people would finally and fully realize that one candidate or the other was the presumptive winner of the nomination (at least insofar as the will of the voters was concerned), because there was no way that he would otherwise support any one candidate publicly, in case he wound up on the losing team.

Thus, the race for the nomination is effectively over (though I still say that Senator Clinton should fight in the remaining races, up to and including June 3), and the general election campaign is ready to heat up, though it may have to wait for a while prior to getting fully started, due to the trickiness of how Senator Clinton ends her candidacy, and when.  (Unless, of course, she plans to fight this to the convention, which I doubt she will do but which, one must admit, is still a possibility.)

Mr. Edwards's endorsement is also important for another reason:  Mr. Edwards brings with him the respect of a sizable percentage of white,  blue-collar voters, who at present happen to be one of the two electorally-necessary groups from whom Senator Obama is struggling to win support (the other being Hispanics).  So this endorsement may help to start bringing at least a certain percentage of white, blue-collar voters over to Senator Obama's side, if initially in a grudging manner.  As such, it could prove to be enormously important.  Or it could prove to be overblown.  Right now, we just don't know, and I must say that I find myself in the odd position of agreeing with the wait-and-see approach that many in the media are taking regarding this endorsement.  (I've been agreeing in large part with the media for a few weeks now; something is a little "off" in the galaxy....)

Beyond what I've thus far stated, Senator Edwards's endorsement has started a discussion regarding his potential role in the upcoming general election campaign.  On Wednesday, History Professor Julian Zelizer of Princeton University put is this way in an interview with McClatchy Newspapers:

"It's a nice reminder for the Obama team of what Edwards might bring to the ticket.  Obama needs to get these [blue-collar] voters.  There's a real fear that McCain could pick up Democratic voters in states like Ohio and Florida, white working class voters that are not enthused about Barack Obama either for racial reasons, elite reasons, whatever."

Yet before anyone jumps the gun and decides that Mr. Edwards would make a good choice for Senator Obama's running mate, Professor Zelizer adds the following:

"The timing of his endorsement is classic Edwards.  One of Edwards' problems is that he doesn't seem authentic.  He made his whole campaign about populism, but I think a lot of people see him as a traditional senator who'll say whatever it takes to win....  He comes out after the race is basically over.  He doesn't have to take any risk; he's endorsing the winner.  It's always good to get an endorsement, but if this is about a running mate, there's a lot of serious thinking the Obama campaign would have to do before they go with him."

Yes, there would indeed have to be an awful lot of serious discussion prior to making Mr. Edwards the running mate for Senator Obama.  For one, can anyone name the last time someone who was a running mate on a losing Presidential ticket for a major party was selected to be the running mate for that party's ticket in the next election cycle?  Anyone, anyone?  Well, you'd have to go back to 1908, when Eugene Debs selected Benjamin Hanford to be his running mate for the Socialist Party's ticket (that party had a substantial amount of support back then--enough for them to be considered a major party--though they obviously never came close to winning the presidency).  That was the exact same Presidential ticket that the Socialists had fielded in the 1904 election cycle.  (It would be the equivalent of the Democrats running a Kerry/Edwards ticket again this year....)

It's also the case, of course, that Mr. Edwards did not help Senator Kerry win a single Southern state in 2004, including Mr. Edwards's home state of North Carolina.  Ironically, Mr. Edwards may be on Senator Obama's running-mate list this time around because, though Senator Kerry's background was far more of what so many have taken of late to calling "elitist" than Senator Obama's background is, Senator Obama is suffering from more "elitist" claims (at least recently) than Senator Kerry did in 2004 (which is saying something...).

So it may be natural for Senator Obama to put Mr. Edwards on his shortlist of potential running mates.  But, though it may help in some ways, it would ultimately be unwise for Senator Obama to eventually choose Mr. Edwards as his running mate.  A good compromise would be to assure Mr. Edwards that he will be nominated by a potential President Obama to be the U.S. Attorney General if Senator Obama were to win the general election.  In return, Senator Obama would reap the benefits of having Senator Edwards alongside him while he campaigns in primarily blue-collar, politically important areas of the country.  I think Mr. Edwards, still a lawyer at heart (as so many politicians are), would jump at the chance to be the country's top attorney.

HOW ABOUT CARL LEVIN FOR SECRETARY OF DEFENSE...OR EVEN V.P.?

Senator Obama's general election strategy is taking shape, and so far it's a good, if naturally incomplete (at this stage in the campaign) one.  He still seems unsure of how to handle the fact that Floridians in general seem to dislike his candidacy when set alongside that of Senator McCain.  (Senator McCain is still clobbering Senator Obama in Florida polls; these dire results for Senator Obama have held steady for several months now.)

So he's currently focusing on the other state that has had primary-dispute troubles with the Democratic Party this time around:  Michigan.  (Polls in Michigan suggest that an Obama vs. McCain contest is close there.)  Senator Obama visited that heavily blue-collar state yesterday, and he brought Mr. Edwards with him, which was a good move given Mr. Edwards's still-considerable support amongst blue-collar white voters.  This suggests that Senator Obama will make winning Michigan a priority in his effort to win the general election.

This is a good idea.  Michigan is largely blue-collar, but its economy is hurting badly right now, and there is a lot of residual distaste for the past seven-plus years of the Bush Administration.  Also, Senator McCain lost the Michigan primary to Governor Mitt Romney, despite and perhaps because of the fact that Senator McCain tried to suggest that many of Michigan's manufacturing jobs were gone for good, and therefore the state needed help in order to transition a healthy percentage of its economy in other directions.  Many Michigan voters did not like the sound of that rather pragmatic idea.

So Senator Obama senses an opportunity in Michigan, a perennial swing-state that has leaned ever-so-slightly to the Democrats over the last few Presidential elections.  He should keep working hard in Michigan so that whatever the fallout from the disputed Democratic primary is, he does not suffer personally for it.  I would suggest that he also concentrate on healing rifts with voters in Pennsylvania, another very important swing-state that has leaned slightly to the Democrats of late.

If he wins both Michigan and Pennsylvania, Senator Obama could lose Florida and Ohio and still conceivably win the election--that is, if he manages wins in places such as Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, etc...which polls suggest that he could do.  He would also need to win at least two of the following four states:  Nevada, Missouri, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

In order to better his chances in Michigan, Senator Obama may wish to let Michiganians know that their most tenured Democratic U.S. Senator, Carl Levin (who always wins re-election by large margins, despite tight Presidential races), will be asked to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense.  (If Senator Obama wins the general election, chances are very strong that Senator Levin's seat would be won by a fellow Democrat in a special post-November election if he were chosen to be a member of the President's cabinet.)

Senator Levin is the highly-respected Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee (his knowledge on the subject is immense) and he has many years of foreign policy expertise on his resume', both of which could help to offset Senator Obama's perceived lack of experience in those areas.  Senator Levin has worked for years to promote affordable health care for all Americans, which dovetails with Senator Obama's viewpoint, and he has been a critic of President Bush's Iraq strategy from the start, which also dovetails with Senator Obama's views.  Finally, Senator Levin is in his early-seventies, which counterbalances Senator Obama's relative youth.  (Hmm...he almost sounds like a potential running mate....)

It is my opinion that Senator Obama will want to win either Ohio or (a longer shot) Florida in the general election in November.  It is also my opinion that he will absolutely have to win Pennsylvania and Michigan (along with other states, of course) if he is to become the next President of the United States.  Utilizing Senator Levin while campaigning in Michigan (and elsewhere) should be a priority, and indicating that he would have a powerful role in a potential Obama Administration could send a positive message to voters in Michigan.