USA Today led the frenzy yesterday (June 16), but the cable news networks (and a few of the major non-cable television news outlets) very quickly picked it up and ran with it, as well, and it was in the major European news outlets within an hour or two of "breaking" here.... What am I talking about? Well, one of Senator Obama's campaign managers, David Plouffe, told a group of potential donors who had previously supported Senator Clinton's presidential bid that, yes, there are many possible electoral routes that Senator Obama can take in order to win a majority of the electoral college this coming November, a few of which do not require that Senator Obama wins in Florida and/or Ohio.
This is old news to electoral college nerds like myself, but if you thought that Florida and Ohio were of paramount importance to winning the White House, that's understandable given the Florida fiasco of 2000 and the close, scale-tipping win for President Bush in Ohio in 2004. The fact of the matter is that this time around, with Senator Clinton out of the race (a Clinton/McCain race would have almost surely produced a very 2000/2004-esque electoral map, with either senator securing a relatively close-fought victory), the electoral map is now officially in chaos.
Why? Well, Senator Obama's popularity extends to some previously-"red" mountain states (Colorado; Montana; maybe even Wyoming) that polls suggested would have been anti-Clinton territory. Senator Obama may be able to pull off a victory in one or two of them (Colorado, which has been moving into swing-state territory for some time now, looks to be his best bet, with Montana next behind it; Wyoming might be a pipe dream). Other typically "red" states in the western half-or-so of the U.S., such as North Dakota and Alaska, could also be in play, at least to the extent that Senator McCain will have to sweat a bit in one or both of those states to re-secure them by election day.
Then there's Indiana. Might that "red" state be in play this time around? It might, at a push. If Senator Obama makes a run for it, Indiana might be another place that Republicans will have to spend time and money re-securing. Conversely, blue-collar West Virginia may be out of play...again. We'll see how much energy the Obama campaign puts into that state, which for now looks like a long-shot for the Democrats to win.
Virginia, Virginia, Virginia. There are legitimate reasons why we've heard so much about Virginia (and its thirteen electoral votes) of late, despite the fact that it hasn't voted for a Democrat for president in over forty years. One reason is that it has been turning from a "red" state to a swing-state in recent years (even New England's Senator Kerry made a belated run at it in 2004, and though he lost it, he lost by single digits...) due in part to strong Democratic candidates for statewide and national offices (Mark Warner, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine). Another reason is that the African-American population in Virginia--and the overall minority population--is growing, particularly in the northeast of the state (across from Washington, D.C.). At any rate, Senator Obama is presently locked-up in a statistical dead-heat with Senator McCain in Virginia right now.
Mr. Plouffe also suggested that Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana might be prime targets for the Obama campaign this time around. (No one I managed to hear reported that he suggested North Carolina as a possible target. Perhaps this is because everyone already knows that North Carolina is an Obama-target, given his booming primary victory there, its changing demographics, and its increasing number of college students and college graduates.) I've been telling folks to watch Louisiana and Mississippi for a while now, and polls in those states bear this suggestion out: Louisiana has a strong anti-Bush sentiment right now, due largely to the events in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, and even in Mississippi, whose Republican governor handled the events in the wake of Hurricane Katrina with what many saw as strength and character, Senator Obama was recently trailing Senator McCain by only six points. Both states also have relatively large African-American populations.
Georgia might be a monkeyshine. But I stress "might." Of late, polls have suggested that Senator Obama is still trailing Senator McCain in that state by double-digits. The Obama campaign is suggesting that a strong college-student and African-American turnout in Georgia might tip the scales into Senator Obama's column come election day, but, though a possibility, right now it looks like the longest-shot of the Southern states already mentioned (the others being, in alphabetical order, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Virginia). But if they can plant a seed of doubt regarding retaining Georgia in the minds of those running the McCain campaign...well, Georgia is a fairly sizeable state, so it might require a lot of money to secure.... Then again, if Georgian Sam Nunn were added to the Democratic presidential ticket, or if the economy in the southeast went into freefall, Georgia might--might--just go to Senator Obama.
There are a lot of ways that Senator Obama could secure the 270 electoral votes required to be the 44th President of the United States. But one thing is certain: he needs to re-secure ground won by Vice President Gore and Senator Kerry, which means that he might start by not taking his eyes (and attention) off of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. So far, it looks as though he's likely heeding that advice, which could be a good sign for Democrats.
And let's not forget about the other potentially critical swing-states, such as Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico (and perhaps even Minnesota, Oregon, and...at a push...Arkansas).
Another thing is also certain: winning either Florida or Ohio would help greatly in his quest to achieve 270 electoral votes. It may not be critical in an academic sense, but it would help his cause (and raise his chances of winning the presidency) greatly indeed if he won one or the other of those classic swing-states. Senator Clinton beat Senator Obama decisively in the Ohio primary, and she surely would have beaten him in a "real" Florida primary, too. I'm not necessarily a fan of adding her to the ticket, but I am a fan of utilizing her on the campaign trail, in those two states in particular.
Paging Hillary....
Note: For fun/frustration with the electoral map, go to: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm
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