Lists, Political and Otherwise (I'm Told They're Hip)

OH, HOW WE LOVE LISTS (EXCEPT WHEN WE DON'T)

I was informed by a friend just the other day that people like lists.  This bit of inside information was unsolicited and completely out of context regarding the discussion at hand, and I had long since developed the idea that this was the case, anyway.  Certainly it's the case for me; I've lost count of the overwhelming amount of times I've contributed to sports arguments regarding, say, who should be considered the "top ten baseball pitchers of all time," or television arguments regarding "the best half-dozen science fiction television shows of all time."  (Imagine transitioning immediately from the former discussion to the latter, and you can see how much difficulty I've had keeping any particular group of individuals interested in my ramblings for more than a few minutes at parties....)

When people hate lists--which they often do--it's generally because the lists involve items to be purchased at a local store or things to do prior to the end of the day or the week.  Those are functional lists that are necessary in the sense that they keep one focused on the task at hand, which I suppose needs to be done from time to time, though we (or at least I) often dislike having to focus too much, particularly on things such as groceries and housework.  (I'm not sure which of those two categories I dislike more, though I know that transitioning immediately from one to the other is my definition of intellectual purgatory.)

When people love lists--and, yes, most folks do seem to love them from time to time, whether we're aware of it at the time or not--it's generally because the lists frame or structure rather esoteric subjects in a more concrete manner.  For instance, it's slightly ridiculous, when one thinks about it, to list a presidential nominee's potential V.P. running mates from, say, #1 to #6 based on qualifications or the likelihood they will be picked due to electoral helpfulness, etc., because so much more goes into choosing a presidential running mate than generic categories can suggest.  So much of the selection process is based on "mood" and "feeling," and the "mood" can relate to chemistry between the potential running mates or within the party, or it can relate to the mood of voters in some swing states or the country as a whole, just as "feeling" can relate to the nominee's sense of the individual under consideration or of the public's perception of the individual, or perhaps of where the country might be politically in the coming months, or....

Still, I admit that, even knowing what I know about the arbitrary nature of lists, I find myself generally liking them, mostly for their ability to set a foundation (for whoever is taking part in a particular discussion) from which a more freewheeling discussion can grow.  That also means that, during the course of a conversation, one's initial list can alter a bit, based on point/counter-point exchanges one has with others as well as with oneself.  Personal reflection can contribute to the process of list-shifting, though it can also contribute to the process of further solidifying certain elements of one's initial list.

So today I have decided to create a few lists, political and otherwise in nature, in the hopes of spurring my own inward discussions and periods of reflection regarding a few topics I've been turning around in my head of late.  This means that the particular numerical ordering in several lists might very well shift around in the future, though some might not.  We'll see.  For what it's worth, here they are:

MOST LIKELY POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOMES, NOVEMBER 2008 (from most likely to least likely)

--Possible outcomes for either side:  very close; decisive; landslide.

1.)  Senator Obama wins decisively the popular vote and electoral vote.

2.)  Senator McCain wins a very close election in the popular vote and electoral vote.

3.)  Senator Obama wins a very close election in the popular vote and electoral vote.

4.)  Senator McCain wins decisively the popular vote and electoral vote.

5.)  Senator Obama wins a landslide in the popular vote and electoral vote.

6.)  Senator McCain wins a landslide in the popular vote and electoral vote.

--Note:  I believe that the top three possibilities are far more likely to occur than the bottom three possibilities.  (This is to suggest that the election is still very much up in the air, which is natural at this point in the process.)

MOST LIKELY VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE CHOICES

I have endorsed Senator Joe Biden to be Senator Obama's running mate and Governor Sarah Palin to be Senator McCain's running mate.  I stand by those endorsements, though there are other strong contenders on both sides (particularly the Democratic side).  The following are lists of the people that I think are among the MOST LIKELY to be chosen as the running mate for each candidate.  I'll try to whittle them down to one or two choices; let's see if I can do that now....

SENATOR McCAIN'S FOUR MOST LIKELY CHOICES (in alphabetical order):

Governor Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota); former Governor Tom Ridge (Pennsylvania); former Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts); U.S. Senator John Thune (South Dakota)

Of that group, all of whom must be high-up on Senator McCain's list, I find Governor Pawlenty to be a bit of a lightweight, low-risk/low-reward choice (better suited to a year in which the nominee is comfortably ahead in the polls).  Thus, if I had to whittle that list to three, it would be:  Ridge, Romney, Thune.

Of that group, I still sense a bit of distrust on the part of Senator McCain regarding Governor Romney (though their relationship has thawed of late and Governor Romney would probably help in states like Michigan), so, though it's a tough call, if I had to whittle that list to two, it would be:  Ridge, Thune.

Governor Ridge has problems with pro-life voters and, as the former Director of Homeland Security, is somewhat tied (if now tangentially) to President George W. Bush, but he is solid on national security issues and centrist voters in his swing-state have liked him in the past.  Senator Thune will have no problems with either social conservatives or economic conservatives, and his relative youth is a positive for a McCain ticket, but to the average voter he is less well known than Governor Ridge.  He would therefore need an introductory period so that voters could familiarize themselves with him.  He is not from a swing-state, though he is from a swing-region (the Upper Midwest).  So, as far as I'm concerned...

Senator McCain's likeliest choice is: (tie) Tom Ridge and John Thune.

Senator McCain's possible "Wow!"-inducing Dark Horse choice:  Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

SENATOR OBAMA'S FIVE MOST LIKELY CHOICES (in alphabetical order):

U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (Indiana); U.S. Senator Joe Biden (Delaware); former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn (Georgia); U.S. Senator Jack Reed (Rhode Island); former Governor Mark Warner (Virginia)

I kept Senator Nunn on the list because, though he is disliked by voters on the left wing of the party for various reasons, he would help with southern voters and centrists nationwide.  Still, he'd be controversial with lefties, so he's probably not the most likely choice.  Senator Bayh is straight out of central casting; he's a Clinton loyalist who has campaigned hard and impressively for Senator Obama of late, which could help to unite the Clinton/Obama factions; and he's won several gubernatorial and senatorial elections in his conservative state.  Still, he was probably a bit too enthusiastic to "liberate" Iraq in 2002 and 2003 for Senator Obama's taste.  Hence, if I had to whittle the list down to three, they would be:  Biden, Reed, Warner.

Governor Warner is presently running for a U.S. senate seat, and he's way up in the polls in his swing-state (Virginia).  I'm not certain that many Democratic strategists want to give up that formerly-Republican seat by extracting him from that race in order to be Senator Obama's running mate.  Though he'd be a great choice, if I had to whittle the list down to two, they would be:  Biden, Reed.

If Senator Biden is selected, his state would probably deliver another Democrat to fill in his senate seat.  If Senator Reed is selected, his state's Republican governor might obfuscate things by working to send a Republican to the U.S. Senate for a time.  But more than that, Biden is a proven debate-winner with a lengthy, experienced history in the U.S. Senate.  He would bring instant political gravity to an Obama ticket, he knows how to speak to both the literati and the more working class elements of the Democratic party, and he'd be broadly acceptable to both the Clinton and Obama wings of the party.  Though both gentlemen would make for very strong choices, if I had to whittle the list down to one, as far as I'm concerned...

Senator Obama's likeliest choice is:  Joe Biden.

Senator Obama's possible "Wow!"-inducing Dark Horse choice:  there are many of them, male and female, but I'd say Governor Brian Schweitzer (Montana) is a Dark Horse with a real western-state outlook, and he has a slight-but-real possibility of winning the role of running mate.

HASSLINGTON'S CURRENT LIST OF TOP SIX WORDS

These are the words I have found myself uttering increasingly (and perhaps alarmingly) this past week....

1.)  gelatinous

2.)  reticence

3.)  platitude

4.)  esoteric

5.)  verisimilitude

6.)  vicissitude

HASSLINGTON'S FAVORITE PAUL SIMON SONGS

Paul Simon is my favorite musical artist.  (I know I'm over thirty years younger than the sixty-six year old Mr. Simon, but he's still my favorite musical artist.)  I own all of his albums, and Mrs. Hasslington is kind enough to let me play them relatively often.  Here are my top half-dozen Paul Simon songs at present (this list often shifts):

1.  "Still Crazy After All These Years" (1975)

2.  "The Boxer" (1969)

3.  "Slip Slidin' Away" (1977)

4.  "Graceland" (1986)

5.  "America" (1968)

6.  "Hearts and Bones" (1983)