Playing The Presidential Election Percentages

Much has been made over the airwaves today regarding the apparent "tightening" of the presidential race in such swing-states as Florida and Ohio. To a certain extent, this appears to be true, and to a certain extent, it is not. Here's why....

1.) The race has been "tight" in Ohio for quite some time now. Some reputable recent polls have put Senator Obama in the lead by up to three precentage points in Ohio, while others have put Senator McCain in the lead by up to three percentage points. (Those numbers are all within the margin of error.) Still other polls show a dead heat. But, as I said, the fact of the matter is that Ohio has not swung nearly as much in the polls over the last few months as have other states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. (Several weeks ago, both Michigan and Wisconsin were either dead-heats or leaning slightly toward Senator Obama, but at present both are leaning heavily toward Senator Obama, to the point where Senator McCain has pulled a lot of his people out of Michigan and his campaign may have to pull some money out of Wisconsin.)

Yet Ohio has been a toss-up for quite some time now; some folks may feel that it has fluctuated a little one way or a little the other way, but if that's the case, the fluctuations have been very small indeed.

2.) Let's remember that as recently as mid-September, Florida was seen as what I would term "relatively safe McCain territory," as Senator McCain had been leading in Florida polls on a consistent basis since the Democratic party had settled on its selection of Senator Obama as its nominee back in early June. (Senator Obama announced his victory in Saint Paul, Minnesota, at the start of the summer season.) Last week, however, Florida polls suggested that Senator Obama may have taken the lead, which was a dramatic turn-around. This week, many of those same polls are unsure of who is in the lead, with some of them suggesting that the race is now a toss-up in that state.

This is natural in the sense that any big fluctuation in one particular direction is generally followed by a small fluctuation in the other direction in state-wide polls (and in national polls, for that matter). Florida has most likely displayed this pattern by moving from its "relatively safe McCain territory" status to "toss-up but perhaps leaning Obama" in a very short timespan, which has created a slight "kick-back" against the pro-Obama fever in that major toss-up state. Hence, many post "kick-back" polls suggest a dead heat in the state. Given the amount of retired military voters and retired folks in general in Florida, and given the fact that Senator McCain once scored six or seven points ahead of Senator Obama in Florida for weeks-long stretches in many polls (and at least four-plus ahead of Senator Obama for months-long stretches), I consider this a good sign that Senator Obama's candidacy is strong in Florida.

3.) There is almost always a "tightening" of the polls nationally prior to a presidential election if one candidate is leading the other by a not insubstantial margin leading into the final three weeks. In this case, Senator Obama has led Senator McCain by about five or six points nationally for a few weeks now, and the general trend has been toward Senator Obama for a month or more now. Hence, it is natural that in several swing-states (and, in a more general manner, nationally) people are conducting gut-checks regarding their choices in order to solidify their decisions, and some of them are wavering. Yet the point is that many are not, as most all of the national polls still suggest that Senator Obama is in the lead by at least four percentage points, and perhaps as much as six, amongst folks who suggest they are going to vote on November 4. (There are of course some polls that show smaller or larger national leads for Senator Obama, but the four-to-six point region seems the most often reported at this point.)

Let's remember that just prior to election day in 2004, President George W. Bush led in most national polls by a mere percentage point or two, yet he won the election nationally by about two-and-a-half percentage points. Though how each state votes is more important than national numbers, a lead of three or more percentage points nationally this late in the campaign season is a good sign for the leader....

4.) It's important to look at the other swing-states that are at this moment very much "in play." Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin--three of which voted for Senator Kerry in 2004--are at present in "relatively safe Obama territory." New Mexico and Oregon are probably also there, and New Hampshire may be moving rapidly in that direction (though one never knows about New Hampshire). That leaves Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia as the most-competitive swing-states at present, all of whom voted for George W. Bush in his narrow 2004 electoral victory. (And don't count-out Indiana, which also voted for President Bush....)

Hence, if there is a late swing to Senator McCain in the final two weeks of the campaign, he will pick up several of those states, which can only be considered a "hold" for the Republican nominee--and the election will probably be a very close one. Conversely, if there is a late swing to Senator Obama, he will win the election in a landslide. The third scenario comes about if things simply "tighten" a bit more in those states, in which case the advantage surely goes to Senator Obama. And things have actually "tightened" in Senator Obama's favor in a few other states of late: Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. All of those states voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. A win for Senator Obama is still a long-shot in those four states, but his competitiveness in those states puts more pressure on Senator McCain's camp.

Broadly speaking, Senator McCain is still on defense now, whereas Senator Obama is still on offense. Senator McCain can still win the election, but if Senator Obama keeps playing his cards in a steady, cool manner, potentially losing either Florida or Ohio will not lose him the election, because he need not win either of those states in order to win the electoral vote--though he'd love to win at least one of them. Senator McCain, however, needs to win both of those states to win the election, and he needs to improve his numbers elsewhere, as well.