Instead of discussing the absurd "socialist" label Senator McCain's campaign is at present rather desperately trying to attach to Senator Obama--which hardly bears mentioning--I will now provide the "rough draft" to my "Presidential Swing-State Voting Predictions." The numbers I've come up with are based partly on recent polls, partly on months-long trends, and partly on what my gut is telling me. I've been following the presidential race for almost two years now, yet the only thing I'm sure of is that I'll still be quite unsure of my predictions come election day....
For now this is, as stated above, a rough draft. The "final draft" (featuring some changes, I'm sure) will appear sometime this coming weekend (probably on Sunday). At that time, it will be accompanied by my "Electoral Vote Prediction."
(Note: some typically Republican-voting states--such as Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, and North Dakota--have seen their presidential poll numbers tighten of late, which is why I include them here.)
Colorado: Obama by 3%
Florida: Obama by 5%
Georgia: McCain by 4%
Indiana: McCain by 1%
Iowa: Obama by 9%
Michigan: Obama by 11%
Minnesota: Obama by 11%
Mississippi: McCain by 6%
Missouri: Obama by 3%
Montana: McCain by 3%
Nevada: Obama by 6%
New Hampshire: Obama by 7%
New Mexico: Obama by 8%
North Carolina: Obama by 2%
North Dakota: McCain by 3%
Ohio: Obama by 4%
Oregon: Obama by 10%
Pennsylvania: Obama by 6%
Virginia: Obama by 5%
West Virginia: McCain by 5%
Wisconsin: Obama by 8%
Total swing-state wins: Obama 15, McCain 6
Total swing-state "pick-ups" vs. 2004: Obama +9, McCain -9
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Here's hoping you're right. The Blogging Ceasar, the guy who I've found gets much more right than not, has called it for Obama. We'll see, I'm still anxious - both for the election, and the aftermath, no matter who wins.
Pen,
Check back this weekend, as this is simply a work-in-progress. Some of my numbers may or may not tighten between now and then....
Post a Comment