Here is the final draft of "Hasslington's Presidential Swing-State Voting Predictions," followed by the final draft of "Hasslington's Electoral Vote Prediction." This has been a very difficult task for me, given that John McCain has a history of finishing in a very strong manner with "undecided" voters, but also that the overall trends (domestic and foreign in nature) benefit Barack Obama. So though Barack Obama is more likely to be the next president, it is surely the case that this election is still up in the air, even this close to election day....
HASSLINGTON'S PRESIDENTIAL SWING-STATE VOTING PREDICTIONS
A good friend of mine, who happens to be a Barack Obama supporter and lives in North Carolina, tells me that his state will most likely tip toward John McCain, if just barely. I'm torn evenly with regards to who will "eek" out a win in that state, so I will yield to his expertise.
I am also finding the following states very difficult to predict: Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. Yet I will give them my best shot anyway. (For instance, I have settled on predicting that Ohio will lean very slightly toward Barack Obama, probably by 1% or thereabouts, due simply to the Obama campaign's impressive ground operations there and elsewhere. If that were not the case, Ohio would most likely lean slightly toward John McCain. In other words, I've no idea how Ohio will go, and have simply given up thinking about it by predicting a very close Obama win there....)
Months before they were chosen, I predicted both vice presidential running mates accurately. Might I also get the November 4 presidential results largely right, or not? Personally, I'm not so sure. We'll have to wait and see....
At any rate, HERE ARE MY PREDICTIONS:
1.) I predict that Barack Obama will win the following swing-states:
* Colorado (9 electoral votes) by 4%
* Florida (27 electoral votes) by 3%
* Iowa (7 electoral votes) by 9%
* Michigan (17 electoral votes) by 11%
* Minnesota (10 electoral votes) by 11%
* Missouri (11 electoral votes) by 2%
* Nevada (5 electoral votes) by 4%
* New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) by 6%
* New Mexico (5 electoral votes) by 6%
* Ohio (20 electoral votes) by 1%
* Oregon (7 electoral votes) by 10%
* Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) by 5%
* Virginia (13 electoral votes) by 5%
* Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) by 8%
2.) Barack Obama should also win the following states (and one district):
California (55); Connecticut (7); Delaware (3); District of Columbia (3); Hawaii (4); Illinois (21); Maine (all of its 4 electoral votes, which are distributed somewhat separately); Maryland (10); Massachusetts (12); New Jersey (15); New York (31); Rhode Island (4); Vermont (3); Washington (11).
3.) I predict that John McCain will win the following swing-states:
* Arizona (10 electoral votes) by 5%
* Georgia (15 electoral votes) by 4%
* Indiana (11 electoral votes) by 2%
* Mississippi (6 electoral votes) by 7%
* Montana (3 electoral votes) by 4%
* North Carolina (15 electoral votes) by 2%
* North Dakota (3 electoral votes) by 4%
* West Virginia (5 electoral votes) by 6%
4.) John McCain should also win the following states:
Alabama (9); Alaska (3); Arkansas (6); Idaho (4); Kansas (6); Kentucky (8); Louisiana (9); Nebraska (all of its 5 electoral votes, which are distributed somewhat separately); Oklahoma (7); South Carolina (8); South Dakota (3); Tennessee (11); Texas (34); Utah (5); Wyoming (3).
HASSLINGTON'S ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTION
Barack Obama / Joe Biden : 349 electoral votes (27 states and 1 district)
John McCain / Sarah Palin : 189 electoral votes (23 states)
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
I watched George Stephanopolous yesterday, and all of his pundits predicted similiar Electoral College vote totals.
I for one dont think it's going to be quite so large, but honestly, if it's over 300, I'm ecstatic. Perhaps the feudalists will finally get it - their economic policies don't work.
I for one am going to be glued to the TV tonight...
It's hard to imagine that a country that elected George Bush Jnr twice could actually choose Barack Obama. Very exciting stuff.
As you know, Fay, so very much has changed here in the U.S., particularly since 2000 (but also, at least to a certain extent, since 2004).
The biggest change, I'd suggest, is a greater awareness on the part of the American electorate of the direct relationship between U.S. policy and the wider world, and the various effects that relationship has both inside and outside of the U.S.(economic and otherwise).
I would suggest that if the Iraq War/patriotism connection hadn't still been leveraged heavily by the conservatives in 2004, Kerry would have won that election. But though a majority of the electorate was tired of Mr. Bush by that time, it's difficult to get Americans to vote against a sitting "war president." It really hadn't been done before, and by 51% and a handful of electoral votes, folks decided not to do it then, either....
But we'll get it right today, I hope.
Me too. Am toying with staying up to see the results but with a baby to look after it might be a mistake. Am missing an election party at Newcastle United football ground tonight aswell. Everyone is talking about this election; even my mother-in-law said she likes that "Barack bloke". It will be a very exciting day in Europe if he wins.
Post a Comment