Presidential Election Map Analysis; Also, Potential Obama Cabinet Jobs For Governors Napolitano And Richardson....

ELECTORAL MAP POLITICS: TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE NEXT TIME, HASSLINGTON!

Had I stuck with my initial (say, mid-October or thereabouts) feelings regarding the U.S. presidential electoral map, I would have chosen the correct number of electoral votes for both Barack Obama and John McCain--365 for the former and 173 for the latter--though I would not have picked every single state race correctly.

Why do I say this? Well, I had a sense during the closing weeks of the election that North Carolina might flip barely into the Obama column, but then I listened to my last-minute second-thoughts, which told me that it would perhaps stay barely in the McCain column. As it was, Barack Obama pulled out a very slim victory there.

The same is the case with the Omaha congressional district of Nebraska. A few months ago, I said that it may very well tip into the Obama column, though the rest of the state would surely vote rather heavily for John McCain. But, again, just prior to the election, I had second thoughts, and predicted a razor-thin McCain victory in the district. Again, I should have stayed with my initial feeling.

Had I stayed with those feelings, I would have added sixteen electoral votes (fifteen for North Carolina and one for the Omaha district of Nebraska) to my official pre-election prediction (349 for Barack Obama and 189 for John McCain), which would have brought my prediction for Barack Obama's total to 365.

This does not, however, mean that I would have predicted accurately every state race, because in my official prediction I stuck with my initial sense that Indiana would tip barely to John McCain and Missouri would tip barely to Barack Obama. Yet the opposite occurred, as previously ruby-red Indiana tipped very slightly to Barack Obama and Missouri tipped very slightly toward John McCain (marking the first time since 1956 that Missouri has failed to vote for the eventual president in the general election). Still, as far as electoral votes are concerned, this would not have mattered, as both Indiana and Missouri have 11 electoral votes.

So, had I stuck with my guns, I would have called 48 states and Washington, D.C. correctly, and two states incorrectly. I also would have called the Omaha district correctly, and would have therefore hit the electoral vote tally on its proverbial head (as it were) at 365.

But I must own up to the mistakes I made in my official prediction. Hence, I called 47 states and Washington, D.C. correctly, and three states (and one district in Nebraska) incorrectly. I also fell sixteen electoral votes shy of President-Elect Obama's final winning tally, which is quite good but not exactly prescient.

The moral of this story, I guess, is what I often tell my students: "On multiple-choice exams, only change your answer if you are absolutely sure you messed-up the first time, because often your first idea is the right one." The electoral map is kind of like a multiple-choice exam (or a true-false exam), and it would have perhaps been to my benefit had I taken my own advice.

Yet I do take solace in the following facts: the three states I predicted incorrectly--Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina--are the three I said I was having the greatest trouble predicting in my official pre-election prediction post. And all three of those states were won by one candidate or the other by a razor-thin margin, so all of them could have gone either way....

U.S. HISPANIC POLITICAL GROUPS ARE GRUMBLING IN INCREASING NUMBERS. IT'S TIME FOR RICHARDSON TO BE OFFERED A CABINET POST.

The post of U.S. Secretary of State is not yet filled, given that Senator Hillary Clinton is presently contemplating whether or not she will accept President-Elect Obama's apparent informal offer of the job. And it's of course the case that former President Clinton's list of contributers to his foundation might reveal some deal-breaking names with which the president-elect would not wish to be affiliated. So anything can still happen.

Yet with a potential Secretary of State Clinton looking more and more like a realistic possibility, and with Hispanic political groups beginning to grumble about an apparent lack of representation in the early Obama Administration cabinet choices (despite the fact that Hispanics voted heavily for Mr. Obama), it would probably behoove the president-elect to appoint one of the most experienced Hispanic politicians in the U.S., New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, to an important cabinet post relatively soon.

Now, of course Governor Richardson could still be named Secretary of State, which I think he'd prefer (and which his resume' would suggest has his name written all over it). But failing that, it might be a great idea to give him his old job of U.S. Energy Secretary back (he was Bill Clinton's final Energy Secretary, and he was successful at it), or perhaps the job of U.S. Transportation Secretary. I suggest either of these two jobs because he has shown particular interest (and aptitude) in the connections between energy and transportation in the U.S., and he's both written about and overseen construction of interesting and forward-thinking projects in areas that overlap both categories, such as the rail lines between Albuquerque and Santa Fe, which were initially dubbed "Richardson's Folly" but have since become popular successes.

With his experience in the areas of diplomacy, energy, and transportation (his recent books are also brimming with good ideas in all three areas), and with pressure mounting on President-Elect Obama to appoint one or more Hispanic individual to his cabinet, it's probably a good bet that Bill Richardson will end up with a big national job relatively soon.

We'll see.

FINALLY, CONGRATUALTIONS TO ARIZONA GOVERNOR JANET NAPOLITANO

It's a bit premature, as nothing yet is official, but though she lost out on the U.S. Attorney General job, it seems as though Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano has been asked to be the new Director of Homeland Security. As the governor of a border state who has been a former state attorney general and now deals with, among other things, immigration issues daily, she's well-situated for such a role. Congratulations to her!